Dubai's residential market recorded approximately 35,900 sales transactions in Q2 2026, down 19% quarter on quarter, as several years of record growth gave way to a healthier, more selective phase. Off-plan sales dominated with 76% of all activity, average apartment prices reached AED 1,960 per square foot, and villa values rose 8.5% year on year. Rents entered a rebalancing phase after years of sustained increases, while a record 296 ultra-prime sales above USD 10 million in the first half of 2026 confirmed Dubai as the world's busiest luxury property market. Here is what the data means for buyers and investors.
Q2 2026 at a glance
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c. 35,900 residential transactions, down 19% quarter on quarter (based on Dubai Land Department data)
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AED 83.9 billion in residential sales value recorded by the Dubai Land Department
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76% off-plan share of all residential transactions, up from 73% in Q1 2026
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AED 1,960 per sq ft average apartment price, up 1.9% year on year; villas and townhouses at AED 1,646 per sq ft, up 8.5% year on year
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27,300 homes handed over, the highest quarterly delivery volume in recent years
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296 sales above USD 10 million in H1 2026, a record first half for Dubai's ultra-prime market (Knight Frank)
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Rents rebalancing: Ejari registrations down 22% quarter on quarter, with rents in heavily supplied communities easing 8-10%
Sales: volumes cooled, but from an exceptional base
The headline slowdown needs context. Dubai closed the quarter with approximately 35,884 residential transactions, a 19% decline quarter on quarter. Dubai Land Department figures put residential sales value at AED 83.9 billion for the quarter, and even after the pullback, DLD data for the first half of 2026 shows AED 286 billion in sales across roughly 86,000 deals, one of the strongest first halves ever recorded.
The adjustment was concentrated in the secondary market, where transactions fell around 29% quarter on quarter, while primary sales eased just 16%. Off-plan's share of activity climbed to 76%. Part of that resilience reflects registration lag, as sales agreed in earlier quarters continued to be recorded, but it also shows where buyer conviction sits. If you are weighing both routes, our roundup of Dubai's top off-plan developments in 2026 breaks down the strongest launches transacting in this exact market.
Mortgage activity told a more cautious story, with mortgage-backed deals falling from 1,888 in January to 1,247 in June. Notably, refinancing rose to around 70% of all valuation activity by quarter end, a sign that owners are optimising financing and holding their assets rather than selling.
Prices: headline resilience, growing divergence
Average pricing held up remarkably well against falling volumes. DLD transaction data shows apartments averaging AED 1,960 per sq ft (down 4% from the Q1 peak but up 1.9% year on year) and villas and townhouses at AED 1,646 per sq ft, still 8.5% higher than Q2 2025. Portal data points the same way: Bayut's H1 2026 market report recorded average advertised prices rising 6.7% year on year to AED 1,770 per sq ft.
Transactions show up to 10% in communities absorbing heavy new handovers, such as Dubai Hills Estate and Arabian Ranches 3. Supply-constrained communities held firm. This is no longer one market moving in one direction; community selection now matters more than at any point in the current cycle. Our Dubai Hills Estate area guide and Palm Jumeirah area guide cover the supply picture in two communities on opposite ends of that divide.
Prime and ultra-prime: a record half-year above USD 10 million
Dubai's luxury market wrote its own script this quarter. Knight Frank research recorded 296 home sales above USD 10 million in H1 2026, a record first half, with 131 of those ultra-prime deals closing in Q2. Palm Jumeirah, Emirates Hills and Jumeirah Bay Island continued to anchor demand from international ultra-high-net-worth buyers, a segment covered in more depth in our Palm Jumeirah area guide above.
Secondary prime activity did cool alongside the wider market, but appetite shifted to branded and off-plan launches rather than disappearing, with landmark projects in The Oasis, Dubai Hills Estate and Palm Jebel Ali continuing to transact. Emaar's announcement of a new AED 200 billion master-planned development for around 150,000 residents underlined developer conviction at the top end.
Rents: the rebalancing tenants have waited for
After several years of sustained growth, the leasing market entered a genuine rebalancing phase. Ejari lease registrations fell around 22% quarter on quarter, and rents across a sample of major communities eased 8-10% on average, with the largest corrections in areas receiving significant new supply. Renewals made up roughly 65% of contracts, showing most tenants are staying put and negotiating rather than moving.
For landlords, this is a more competitive environment where pricing and presentation decide outcomes. For tenants and end-user buyers, improved choice is quietly strengthening the case for ownership, especially with new purchase-support initiatives now in play (more below).
Supply: record handovers, disciplined launches
Q2 delivered approximately 27,300 completed homes, the highest quarterly volume in recent years, of which 64% were apartments and an unusually strong 9,900 were villas and townhouses. At the same time, new launches slowed dramatically to around 5,335 units, from more than 45,000 in Q1, as developers switched to selective, phased releases. Delivery timelines are also stretching from roughly three years to four, staggering future supply and easing absorption pressure. That combination, more ready stock now and restrained pipeline additions, is exactly what a soft landing looks like.
Policy tailwinds: Golden Visa reform and a AED 34 billion metro line
Two structural developments during the quarter matter well beyond Q2. First, the UAE removed the previous equity requirement for property-based Golden Visa applications, meaning eligibility is now assessed on the full DLD-registered property value of AED 2 million or more, including mortgaged and off-plan purchases (see the official UAE government Golden Visa guidance for current criteria). This opens long-term residency to a far wider pool of international investors, a theme we unpack in our complete guide to the UAE Golden Visa through property investment.
Second, the approval of the AED 34 billion Metro Gold Line is set to support residential demand along key development corridors, while the Dubai Land Department expanded its First-Time Home Buyer Programme and introduced the Flexi Rent initiative, both widening access to ownership for residents.
What this means for buyers and investors
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End-user buyers: more choice, less competition and motivated sellers in heavily supplied communities. The window for negotiating on ready stock is the best it has been in three years.
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Investors: community selection is now the whole game. Supply-constrained, prime and villa-led communities are outperforming; apartment-heavy handover zones face near-term pricing pressure but offer entry points for patient capital.
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Off-plan buyers: developer discipline on launches and extended timelines reduce oversupply risk, and the Golden Visa reform materially improves the residency case for off-plan commitments above AED 2 million. Our The Oasis by Emaar buyer's guide walks through one launch where that threshold, and the visa upside, is already in play.
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Landlords: price realistically and invest in presentation; renewals are your friend in a market where tenants have alternatives.
Outlook for H2 2026
We expect fewer Q2 launches to soften transaction volumes into Q3, with the market transitioning to normalisation rather than correction. Oxford Economics forecasts the UAE economy returning to strong growth in 2027 and 2028 after a softer 2026, and structural demand drivers, inward migration, infrastructure investment and residency reform, remain intact. Expect increasingly localised pricing, continued prime outperformance and a more balanced landlord-tenant dynamic through year end.
Frequently asked questions
How many property transactions were recorded in Dubai in Q2 2026?
Dubai recorded approximately 35,900 residential sales transactions in Q2 2026, down around 19% quarter on quarter, with residential sales value of AED 83.9 billion according to Dubai Land Department data. It remains one of the strongest second quarters on record despite the slowdown.
Are Dubai property prices falling in 2026?
Headline prices are still up year on year, with apartments averaging AED 1,960 per sq ft (+1.9%) and villas AED 1,646 per sq ft (+8.5%) in Q2 2026. However, like-for-like analysis shows quarterly adjustments of 5-7% in some communities, so performance now varies significantly by location.
Is off-plan still dominating the Dubai market?
Yes. Off-plan accounted for 76% of all residential transactions in Q2 2026, up from 73% in Q1, even as new launches slowed to around 5,335 units. Developers are deliberately phasing releases, which supports pricing in the primary market.
What happened to Dubai rents in Q2 2026?
Rents entered a rebalancing phase. Lease registrations fell around 22% quarter on quarter and average rents in a sample of major communities eased 8-10%, with the biggest declines in areas absorbing new supply. Around 65% of contracts were renewals.
Is Q2 2026 a good time to invest in Dubai property?
Conditions favour selective buyers. Increased ready supply, motivated sellers and the removal of the Golden Visa equity requirement improve the entry case, while record ultra-prime sales and resilient villa pricing show depth of demand. Community-level research matters more than at !any point in the current cycle.
What changed with the UAE Golden Visa for property investors in 2026?
The previous equity requirement was removed. Eligibility is now based on the full DLD-registered property value of AED 2 million or more, regardless of payment stage or financing, which extends the 10-year visa route to mortgaged and off-plan buyers from day one of registration.
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Data sources:
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Dubai Land Department (via DLD media and press coverage): AED 83.88bn residential sales / 34,719 deals Q2; AED 286.44bn sales / c. 86,000 deals H1 2026
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Knight Frank: 296 USD 10m+ sales H1 2026 (record), 131 in Q2
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Bayut H1 2026 report: advertised prices +6.7% YoY to AED 1,770/sq ft
